Economic Uncertainty and Postponed Parenthood: A Study of Event Histories

Cyclical increase in economic uncertainty and structural economic uncertainty
seems to decrease fertility. This study analyzing the event history of an
individual uses a sequence of events to address the question: Why do some
individuals postpone to have children while others do not? The economic
shock of sudden increased unemployment and changed fertility trends are
studied in a large scale prospective longitudinal study (n=300,000) of individuals
born 1980–85 followed through linked administrative records analyzed
in discrete-time hazard regression. The experience of economic
uncertainty is approximated from records of unemployment records. Economic
uncertainty and social exclusion increase the individual risk of induced
medical abortion, family dissolution, and postponing parenthood. Postponement
of fertility is closely related to the expansion of education. The
economic shock of sudden increased unemployment is found to decrease
fertility rates. Labor market conditions characterized by temporary employment and social exclusion are decisive when decision about starting a family.